نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 کارشناس ارشد مهندسی آینده پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت، علم و فناوری دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر (مسئول مکاتبات)
2 کارشناس ارشد مهندسی آینده پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت، علم و فناوری دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر
3 عضو هیئت علمی دانشکده مدیریت، علم و فناوری دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
In 1394, Research and Planning Management of Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi in order to their inherent missions had defined a research project about the future of its own cultural services. In this regard, futures studies expert team was formed and they selected scenario development method (GBN) as a favorable futuristic planning. So library and field studies concluded by huge volumes of baseline studies, review of
dozens of articles and administrative documents in addition to interviews. After recognizing key elements and driving forces, experts accredited these factors by their interactions in four specialized PEST panels, and potential defects were resolved. Then researchers identified two elements of "economic situation" and "cultural integrated management" as critical uncertainties
and constructive scenario development axes based on the findings and Cross Impact Analysis. We have been considered level of integrated management (organizational and more broadly) and caused to describe total six inductive scenarios including preferable, probable and possible ones. Meanwhile guidance indicators and advices were described in order to make fields to shape better decisions and policies besed on Astan Quds Razavi vision.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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