عنوان مقاله [English]
Background: The banking industry as one of the most important economic sectors of the country has always been influenced by many factors And that's the thought of the experts and the economists To realize the future of the swing instability has prevented it in the face of changes ahead and Provide growth and development for this sector.
Purpose: The purpose of this study is to formulate scenarios of the banking industry with a future research approach.
Method: This goal-based research is an applied research that has used qualitative methods to collect data. Data collection tools are questionnaires, interviews, check-ins, and statistical and information networks. In this study, the statistical population of banking managers and specialists and university professors are familiar with the field of banking, which, based on the type of information required to conduct the research, non-probable judgmental sampling was used. The methodology of this research is based on future research scenario writing.
Results: After formulating the initial question and identifying the main topic, forming the panel of experts, conducting exploratory interviews and identifying the driving forces, 64 variables were identified as the primary influencing factors of the banking industry by a 64*64 matrix and then provided with the help of Mic Mac Software , 12 key factors were extracted and categorized into 38 different situations. These situations were then presented to the experts for all key factors in a 38*38 matrix and analyzed in the Scenario Wizard software and four scenarios were extracted.
Conclusion: Finally, 3 strong scenarios, 1 believable scenario and 8 weak ones were identified and classified into three groups: desirable, static and crisis and presented strategies for developing the banking industry.